Oil, Oil, Where Will You Go?
With crude oil prices reaching record highs of $63 per barrel, the questions beckons, how high will it go?
Only upwards. The world is nearing the level of peak oil production, the maximum amount of oil that can be produced. With production stagnating and ultimately in decline, the cost of oil per barrel will continue to rise. China and India both have rapidly growing economies that suck up more and more of the world's oil supply, and, consequently, exacerbates the problem.
Many estimates abound when peak production will occur. The USGS (United States Geological Society) predicts that peak production will occur between the years 2003-2020 (according to their most recent World Petroleum Assessment 2000).
The peak oil production lies much closer to the 2003 assessment than the 2020. The USGS, despite making excellent maps, superb lab reports, and detailed publications, has not had much success in the estimation of oil reserves and production peaks. Back when estimating the oil reserves of the US, USGS geologists divided the US into small sections and estimated the amount of oil in each section independently of the other areas.
The problem with this methodology is that individual areas are not independent of each other. If no source rocks (rock rich in organic and carbonic material) exist, or if the source rocks are buried deeper than the oil window (between 7,500 and 15,000 feet) then many of the little areas that the USGS predicted to hold oil are eliminated (Hubbert's Peak). Consequently the USGS had no idea when United States peak oil production would occur.
To this very day the USGS has an implausibly high estimate of the maximum amount of barrels of oil to be produced from the United States. According to the 2000 US Geological Survey the USGS estimated that US ultimate production will be in the neighborhood of 362 billion barrels. To put into perspective the US would have to discover an oil field (or fields) that adds up almost to the reserves of Kuwait (Hubbert's Peak).
The 2000 USGS report estimates that ultimate world oil production is 3.012 trillion barrels (requires discovering new fields equivalent to the entire Middle East), compare that with more conservative estimates at 2.0 trillion barrels (the number used by Hubbert). This wildly optimistic USGS prediction allows it to justify peak oil production at the possible year of 2020.
The world needs alternatives to oil. Conservation is great, but not good enough. Oil cannot sustain the world's economies for much longer. Unless we want to engage in resource wars with other nations, the US needs to wean itself off the oil bottle. Sooner rather than later.
Only upwards. The world is nearing the level of peak oil production, the maximum amount of oil that can be produced. With production stagnating and ultimately in decline, the cost of oil per barrel will continue to rise. China and India both have rapidly growing economies that suck up more and more of the world's oil supply, and, consequently, exacerbates the problem.
Many estimates abound when peak production will occur. The USGS (United States Geological Society) predicts that peak production will occur between the years 2003-2020 (according to their most recent World Petroleum Assessment 2000).
The peak oil production lies much closer to the 2003 assessment than the 2020. The USGS, despite making excellent maps, superb lab reports, and detailed publications, has not had much success in the estimation of oil reserves and production peaks. Back when estimating the oil reserves of the US, USGS geologists divided the US into small sections and estimated the amount of oil in each section independently of the other areas.
The problem with this methodology is that individual areas are not independent of each other. If no source rocks (rock rich in organic and carbonic material) exist, or if the source rocks are buried deeper than the oil window (between 7,500 and 15,000 feet) then many of the little areas that the USGS predicted to hold oil are eliminated (Hubbert's Peak). Consequently the USGS had no idea when United States peak oil production would occur.
To this very day the USGS has an implausibly high estimate of the maximum amount of barrels of oil to be produced from the United States. According to the 2000 US Geological Survey the USGS estimated that US ultimate production will be in the neighborhood of 362 billion barrels. To put into perspective the US would have to discover an oil field (or fields) that adds up almost to the reserves of Kuwait (Hubbert's Peak).
The 2000 USGS report estimates that ultimate world oil production is 3.012 trillion barrels (requires discovering new fields equivalent to the entire Middle East), compare that with more conservative estimates at 2.0 trillion barrels (the number used by Hubbert). This wildly optimistic USGS prediction allows it to justify peak oil production at the possible year of 2020.
The world needs alternatives to oil. Conservation is great, but not good enough. Oil cannot sustain the world's economies for much longer. Unless we want to engage in resource wars with other nations, the US needs to wean itself off the oil bottle. Sooner rather than later.
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